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THE MOSCOW – BELGRADE – BANJA LUKA – SARAJEVO TRANSVERSAL
BOSNIAN / BOSANSKI
The presidents of the leading political parties in the Parliamentary Assembly of Bosnia and Herzegovina – the Social Democratic Party of BiH (SDPBiH), the Alliance of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD), the Party of Democratic Action (SDA), the Union for a Better Future of BiH (SBBBiH), Serbian Democratic Party (SDS), Croatian Democratic Union of BiH (HDZBiH) and Croatian Democratic Union 1990 (HDZ 1990) – jointly met in Brussels on 27 June 2012 where they agreed with EU Commissioner for Enlargement and European Neighbourhood Policy Štefan Füle to reach a political agreement by 31 August 2012 on the implementation on the Sejdić-Finci judgement and make the necessary amendments to the Constitution to make it compliant with the European Court of Human Rights judgement in the case of “Sejdić and Finci against Bosnia and Herzegovina“.
The implementation of the Sejdić-Finci judgement questions the foundations of the constitutional system in Bosnia and Herzegovina and reveals the background of events related to that judgement. This justifiably raises doubts as to whether membership in NATO and the European Union (EU) really represents the goal of the main political party leaders in Bosnia and Herzegovina?
POSTPONING AND/OR PREVENTING NATO MEMBERSHIP
In the Sejdić - Finci judgement Bosnia and Herzegovina was ordered to amend the provisions of its Constitution as well as the Election Act so as to enable the individuals who do not declare themselves as members of “constituent peoples of Bosnia and Herzegovina” to stand for election as members of the BiH Presidency and delegates to the House of Peoples of the Parliamentary Assembly of Bosnia and Herzegovina.
On December 22, 2009, the Grand Chamber the European Court of Human Rights (Applications Nos. 27996/06 and 34836/06) adopted the judgement in the Sejdić-Finci case, finding that the applicants Dervo Sejdić (Roma) and Jakob Finci (Jewish) as the members of minority communities were deprived of their right to stand for election to the House of Peoples, which is contrary to Article 14 of the European Convention (prohibition of discrimination in relation to the rights laid down in the Convention) in conjunction with Article 3 of Protocol No. 1 thereto (freedom of election), and to stand for election to the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina, which represents a violation of Article 1 of Protocol No. 12 (general prohibition of discrimination).
By offering solutions for the implementation of the Sejdić-Finci case the leading political parties are trying to make some fundamental constitutional changes and realise their secret strategic interests such as to postpone Bosnia and Herzegovina's full membership in NATO and eventually even to prevent it. The importance of NATO membership for Bosnia and Herzegovina has been stressed by Dr. Nerzuk Ćurak, professor at the Faculty of Political Sciences in Sarajevo, in his article “Is Bosnia and Herzegovina an important country? Geopolitical Dilemmas and the Imperative of Statehood („Je li Bosna i Hercegovina važna zemlja? Geopolitičke dileme i imperativ državnosti“) (Sarajevo, 2009), in which he, among other, wrote: “The one who controls Bosnia and Herzegovina with its two-entities controls former Yugoslavia; the one who controls former Yugoslavia controls the West Balkans; the one who controls the West Balkans prevents the balkanisation of the West.”
Current political events clearly point to the existence of a transversal in Bosnia and Herzegovina that encompasses the Moscow – Belgrade – Banja Luka triangle and which is, according to western geopolitical analysts, getting strong ties with Sarajevo through Zlatko Lagumdžija (SDP) and Fahrudin Radončić (SBBBiH). A worrying fact arising from those analyses is that there are certain attempts to realise a plan that could eventually prevent Bosnia and Herzegovina's membership in the strongest military and political alliance in the world, which would, if it was fully obtained, ensure security and stability of the region as well as favourable environment for foreign investments that would consequently lead to economic development. Based on the current status of Bosnia and Herzegovina and its partnership relations with NATO, the above stated transversal would infiltrate into the security system of NATO, EU and other international institutions and agencies ensuring the security of western countries.
A THREAT TO THE US NATIONAL SECURITY AND TO NATO'S SOUTH WING
The transversal that stems from Moscow has two direct branches – one is connected with Podgorica (Montenegro) and the other with Tehran. There are several other transversals also stemming from or passing through Russia.
The question is what role Zlatko Lagumdžija (SDP) and Fahrudin Radončić (SBBBiH) play in this transversal and whose interests they serve – since it is already obvious that dubious Russian money, which stems especially from Montenegro, will find its shelter in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina.
The background of the reconstruction of power in Bosnia and Herzegovina has revealed that the aim is to enable Lagumdžija's and Radončić's staff to take over the Ministry of Foreign Affairs as well as the Defence Ministry, while Radončić himself would occupy the position as the Minister of Security of Bosnia and Herzegovina. This would enable them to assume full control of the key governmental departments responsible for the process of NATO accession and for the security system of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Consequently, the security system of Bosnia and Herzegovina would be directly connected with Moscow, which has a transversal connection with Tehran.
A faked conflict between Milorad Dodik and Zlatko Lagumdžija represents a staged show for the public, while in fact they are trying to get the “political dead man” Lagumdžija back to life as Dodik's closest ally, although according to public opinion polls he and his SDP have lost significant support among the Bosniak electorate. With his accentuated anti-Tehran statements Radončić is actually trying to hide the real goals of his politics. Zlatko Lagumdžija's recent participation at the summit of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) in Makkah represents another of his misuses of OIC – the aim of his unnecessary participation at the Makkah summit was to regain the trust of the Bosniak electorate.
Connecting the security system of Bosnia and Herzegovina with Moscow and Tehran represents a direct threat to the US national security and to NATO's south wing, which requires additional efforts from the competent agencies of the US in fighting organised criminal activities such as trafficking in drugs, human beings and arms and money laundering. They should closely investigate the involvement of certain politicians in Bosnia and Herzegovina with those criminal activities and verify the origin, value and volume of their illegitimate property.
LOCAL ELECTION – THE TRUST IN POLITICAL LEADERS AND PARTIES PUT AT TEST
The local election in Bosnia and Herzegovina scheduled for 7 October 2012 will test the trust enjoyed by political leaders and parties. Milorad Dodik and his SNSD have been constantly losing support in the Republika Srpska entity. On the other hand, the unsuccessful reconstruction of power in Bosnia and Herzegovina has revealed the real intentions of its initiator, which has lead to a decrease of voters' support for Lagumdžija and his SDP-a as well as for Radončić and his SBBBiH – who are actually closely connected with Milorad Dodik, as proven by numerous secret meetings between Dodik and Radončić.
The IFIMES International Institute believes that certain superpower countries will have to strengthen their presence in Bosnia and Herzegovina and the region in order to prevent the irresponsible politicians from bringing Bosnia and Herzegovina into a crisis that could escalate in an undesired direction. It is therefore important to ensure strong cooperation between the US investigation and security agencies, which will have to focus on certain politicians in Bosnia and Herzegovina who are the leaders and/or patrons of organised crime and corruption in that country. The results of local election will strike a heavy blow against the Moscow – Belgrade – Banja Luka – Sarajevo transversal and most probably eliminate certain politicians and parties that have been important players on the political scene in Bosnia and Herzegovina.